The global talent shortage should come as no surprise to anyone who works in the human resources field. What many may not be aware of, how, is just how dire the situation is forecast to become.
US Labor Statistics, for instance, predict that the shortage could double to 85.2 million people by 2030 from 40 million in 2020. Korn Ferry estimates that this could result in the loss of $8.452 trillion in unrealised annual profits by 2030 – which is equivalent to the combined GDP of Germany and Japan. And 2030 is just around the corner.
Added to this is the looming “youth timebomb” – where the world’s population is set to reach “peak youth” in 2057.
If we narrow our focus to Africa, however, the picture is very different. UN projections show that the world population will hit 10 billion people by 2055, and about 95% of this growth will take place in low- and middle-income countries, with Africa accounting for 57%, or 1.4 billion people. The population of sub-Saharan Africa, especially, is projected to double by 2050 – a 99% increase. And almost 60% of Africa’s population is under the age of 25, making ours the world’s youngest continent.
In South Africa, specifically, we have a massive youth unemployment problem, with an unemployment rate higher than the national average. So on the one hand we contemplate a huge global gap in skills and talent, while on the other, we face a huge cohort of young South African people who are unemployed. How could we reframe this global challenge to address South Africa’s massive youth unemployment problem?
Of course, there are obstacles to overcome. Education and relevant skills are a major obstacle. Our school system is still not producing a high quality of matriculants, and many are unable to further their studies due to financial constraints even if they have achieved well at school.
Furthermore, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic – which has been the worst shock to education and learning in recorded history, learning poverty has increased in low- and middle-income countries, with an estimated 70% of 10-year-olds unable to understand a simple written text, according to a new report published recently by the World Bank, UNESCO, UNICEF, UK government Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), USAID, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
This generation of students now risks losing $21 trillion in potential lifetime earnings in present value, or the equivalent of 17% of today’s global GDP. In addition, more than 1.5 billion adults will have no education beyond primary school in 2030, and the report estimates that one billion people globally will need to be reskilled by 2030 because of technological disruption.
When all of that is added to the fact that three out of four organisations globally are struggling to find the talent they need now, in 2022, it is clear that South Africa Inc. could potentially offer a solution.
We can look at this situation as a crisis, or we can see it as an opportunity. We can consider our unemployed youth as a burden, or as a source of massive potential that might just be able to solve this problem – both on the continent and beyond.
This will require agility, creativity and flexibility on the part of organisations, the education sector and government – because our continent and our country may just hold the solution not only to our talent crisis locally, but also globally. And the positive knock-on effects for the continent’s economies could be massive. But it’s going to take a mindset shift, and the willingness to think very differently about this problem.
